Sevilla - Atlético Madrid predictions

It’s hard to see even the most ardent of Sevilla fans expect a victory here. As clear underdogs, even a draw against Atlético Madrid would be quite impressive, let alone an upset in the form of a home win.

Though it won’t be the easiest match of their careers, Atletico Madrid should be able to pull ahead for a victory. Most online bookmakers are pricing an away win at 2.17, which gives us confidence it’s the most likely outcome.

The Sevillistas’s confidence is soaring after a major breakthrough in their previous La Liga game. Despite a very hard matchup against Rayo Vallecano and a home-field disadvantage, Sevilla secured an early lead and turned it into a narrow 1:2 victory.

The away team are coming on the back of a solid effort against Real Madrid, who were by far the clear favourites in that matchup. Atletico played as the visitors and even fell behind early, only managing to secure a 1:1 draw in the late game.

Looking over the home team’s recent record, we can see a worrying trend. They’ve conceded more than 5 goals over the past 3 matches alone, indicating problems in their defensive lineup.

Win or lose, Los Rojiblancos always seem to at least get their name on the score board. They scored at least once in 7 consecutive matches leading up to this one.

The Sevillistas are heading into round 24 with 3 points between them and the relegation zone. They’ll surely want to make some more breathing room for themselves – but going through Atletico to do so will be a difficult task.

Bookmakers claim that this match can go either way with their odds. Of course, Atletico have plenty of reasons to give their all. They’re just 10 points behind the best-placed team, so catching up is quite possible considering most of the season still lies ahead.

The head-to-head stats point at Atletico Madrid as the dominating side in this matchup, with multiple victories over Sevilla in this season alone. The hosts will have a hard time breaking such a streak.

Both teams will have to play with an above-average number of injures. Nemanja Gudelj, Érik Lamela, Nianzou Kouassi, Kike Salas, Mariano Díaz, Lucien Agoumé are unavailable for the hosts. Conversely, Thomas Lemar, César Azpilicueta, Marcos Paulo will not be able to play on the visiting side. The odds still favour Atletico Madrid, though.

While it’s risky as far as betting predictions go, a Draw/Away bet in the Half Time/Full Time market is the best place to find betting value in this match. Simply put, the 3.60 odds outweigh the relatively small implied probability.