France Ligue 1 predictions and odds

The 2020/21 season of the French Ligue 1 is here, and the stakes are as high as ever. Considering this is slowly becoming one of the most highly anticipated top-tier national leagues in Europe, betting on Ligue 1 matches is not something you’ll want to miss out on. 

As always, Betting Fellow is here to provide you with the best Ligue 1 betting tips and predictions. However, if you really want to make the most out of Ligue 1 betting, it’s important to understand the ins and outs of the competition. A smart punter knows how to put all relevant information to use – from the league’s history to the dominant teams and players. All of it can make the difference between a winning bet and a bust.

With that in mind, we’ve created this Ligue 1 betting guide to help you get started. It should present a nice introduction to those with little to no experience when it comes to the highest tier of French football

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France Ligue 1 Predictions

26/01/2022

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Ligue 1 History and General Info

As we’ve already glossed over, the Ligue 1 is the top-tier association league for professional football in France. It is currently ranked as Europes fifth top national league after La Liga, the English Premier League, the German Bundesliga, and Serie A.

Unlike some of its counterparts, Ligue 1 never went through too many name changes. It was founded as the National in 1932 but quickly switched to Division 1 – a name which remained intact until 2002, when the league acquired its current name. Of course, this doesn’t take into account the various sponsorships deals. For instance, the 2020/21 iteration is officially dubbed Ligue 1 Uber Eats.

The founding of Ligue 1 is closely tied to the emergence of professionalism in French football. The adoption of professional teams and leagues came around in the early ‘30s, similarly to most of Europe’s top-flight leagues. However, the move itself was quite controversial at the time. Many important teams of the era such as Strasbourg and Amiens SC refused to go along with the restructuring of France’s league system.

Either way, the first season was held in 1932 and featured 20 teams. The format was a bit different from what we have today, and it was changed a couple of times over the years. Still, relative to some other top-flight national leagues, the competition’s format remained largely consistent over the decades. One notable exception is the years of German occupation during World War 2 and Vichy France. During this time, Division 1 was abolished in favour of regional leagues. Either way, the French Football Federation does not recognize titles and championships in the 1939 – 45 period.

A Ligue 1 season is played between August and May of the following year. It consists of France’s 20 top professional football teams. All the other aspects of the competition are mostly consistent with other leagues of this kind. The teams each face off against every other team twice – once at home and once away. This brings the total number of matches to 38 games per team per season.

As always, the teams are then ranked based on a standard point system – 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and no points for a loss. In cases where teams have the same number of points, they are ranked based on goal difference, then total goals scored.

There are usually no play-offs in Ligue 1. The team with the most points is named champion. However, there are rare exceptions – if two teams are tied for a championship title, qualification to other competition, or relegation, the outcome is decided by a single match on neutral ground.

The two bottom-ranked teams are relegated to Ligue 2, the second tier of French professional football. Since 2016, however, the 18th-placed Ligue 1 team and the 3rd-placed Ligue 2 team face off for a spot in the next season of Ligue 1.

Interestingly, the top two French leagues also have a system called the Attacking Play Table. The table ranks teams based on most goals scored overall. The main idea is to promote more exciting aggressive play, but the table is completely separate from the main league standings and only offers monetary rewards.

Currently, the top 3 ranked teams qualify for the Champions League. The first two teams go directly to the group stage, while the third team enters the third qualifying round. Additionally, the 4th top-ranked team qualifies for the UEFA Europa League.

AS Saint-Étienne currently holds the record for most Ligue 1 titles overall. However, it should be noted that their latest triumph was back in ’81. The second spot is shared by Marseille and reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain with 9 titles each, while the third spot is shared by Monaco FC and FC Nantes with 8 titles. Marseille also hold the record for the most seasons spent in the League, with 71 total seasons in Ligue 1 as of the writing of this article. Paris Saint-Germain, on the other hand, hold the record for most consecutive seasons with 47.

In terms of players, Mickaël Landreau holds the record for most appearances with 618 total games between 1997 and 2004. Most of his career was spent at Nantes, though he also played over 100 matches for both Lille and PSG. Ligue 1’s most prolific goalscorer is Delio Onnis with 299 goals over 449 games between 1972 and 1986.

Ligue 1 Title Challengers

The previous season brought a bit of a shake-up to the French top flight. After 7 titles in a row marred only by one runners-up spot in 2016/17, PSG once again failed to claim the championship. This was obviously surprised, but Ligue 1 outright betting predictions are expecting things to go quite differently this time.

For example, PSG are given a minuscule 1.11 price for finishing top of the table. This means betting on them offers absolutely no value. It also means we can’t simply use Ligue 1 outright winner odds to see who the favourites are. For instance, the second-strongest team after PSG are Lyon with odds of 13.00.

Instead, we’ll take a look at the Ligue 1 Top 3 Finish bet – the competition to get into the Champions League will be quite hard. In this market, the favourites are Lyon with odds of 1.75, Monaco, with 2.38, and defending champions Lille with a similar price of 2.40. The next down are Marseille with 4.33.

Since PSG getting a top 3 finish is pretty much a given, the bookmakers are predicting one of these other 3 clubs will not be able to squeeze into the Top 3.

Paris Saint-Germain

Though they’re undeniably one of the biggest clubs of European football, PSG went through a bit of a dip last season. From a domestic treble and their historic first Champions League finals in 2019/20 to losing the title in 2020/21 and a bitter defeat in the continental semi-finals.

However, with even more cash funnelled into one of the most star-studded lineups in recent memory, it’s hard to deny their status as hard favourites. After all, they still raised the national cup last ear and were the league's most high-scoring squad. To stack the odds even further in their favour, they signed Messi in the most talked-about transfer of the season.

So how is PSG so overwhelmingly favoured even though they lost, while Lille sits at odds of 17.00 to win? Well, money talks in the modern world, and PSG have been described as “the winners of the transfer window”. It’s easy to see why.

Having surprisingly – and quite emotionally – left his boyhood club Barcelona, the Argentine wizard Leo Messi was the last diamond to join the PSG galactic lineup. Messi came on a free transfer but he isn’t even their only new arrival. They also signed Inter Milan’s right-back Achraf Hakimi, midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum, and Gianluigi Donnarumma – one of the heroes of the year’s Euros. Leo Messi’s former arch-enemy Sergio Ramos also joined this summer. If we throw in the likes of PSG mainstays Angel Di Maria, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe, it’s very easy to see why the Parisians are seen as heavy favourites to win the Ligue 1 title. Not only that but this star-studded side is now being touted to lift the highly coveted Champions League trophy in 2021/22.

These expensive transfers were controversial in their own right, sure, with many questions raised of UEFA’s FFP rules. Nevertheless, this is something PSG fans will not be too preoccupied with.  Follow our PSG Predictions

Olympique Lyon

When it comes to Lyon betting predictions, though, we may be a bit more nuanced than with PSG. Despite having a smaller budget than one of their main rivals Monaco and Lyon are widely regarded as currently the second-strongest team in the French top flight. More importantly, this status comes on the back of two very poor seasons. Remember – they clocked at 7 in 2019/20, and climbed to a still-disappointing 4th place last season.

The keyword here is consistency. We’ve seen some squads – like the reigning champions Lille – jump up and down the table in a matter of seasons. Lyon, however, have finished in the Top 4 in every season in this century barring two. They’ve also had a decent run the last time we saw them in the Champions League, and we’ll likely see them return after a 2-year absence.

Lyon’s distinguishing feature is the remarkably strong midfield packed with a mix of young talent and Ligue 1 veterans. This part of their formation includes Houssem Aouar, Lucas Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães, and Rayan Cherki.

It’s been a relatively quiet transfer period, though, with the return of Jeff Reine-Adélaïde and Moussa Dembélé from loans are likely the most notable arrivals. Centre-back Joachim Andersen left for Crystal Palace, though, and the club got a great deal for signing Jean Lucas over to Monaco.

AS Monaco FC

Contrary to Lyon, what Monaco have in financial stability they lack in form consistency. Monaco in Ligue 1 2021-22 season are still expected to perform well, mind you, but this lack of reliability is at odds with making solid Ligue 1 betting predictions.

That said, this team has historically taken the most 3rd places in Ligue 1. That’s the spot they earned last season, and it’s the spot they’re predicted to win in the coming one as well. Interestingly, though, we should also point out that this team is the last one to manage to top PSG from the first place before Lille.

All in all, though, their lineup remains largely unchanged. Team captain and striker Wissam Ben Yedder is still the leader of the squad in many ways and was Ligue 1’s third-best shooter last season. Kevin Volland is another noteworthy centre-forward, as is the freshly-signed rising star Myron Boadu. However, the already-shaky defence of Monaco was further weakened with the departures of Benjamin Henrichs and Fodé Ballo-Touré.

Lille

The tale of Lille snatching the victory out from PSG’s nose is a classic David-and-Goliath scenario. Once the elation of the underdogs winning over “Mr Moneybags” PSG died down, though, reality started to kick in. And it wasn’t pretty.

The champions of French football are neck-deep in debt, with one financial issue coming after the other. Between a broadcast deal gone sour, the 50,000-seater stadium they never use, and the effects of Covid-19, Les Dogues were already forced to gut the title-winning lineup. Boubakary Soumaré, Mike Maignan, and Luiz Araújo were all sold off, and mostly in desperation too.

Some parts of the squad are still around, though. Burak Yilmaz was one of the most highly-praised players last season – and one of the league’s most prolific goalscorers. Jonathan David also remains with Lille, as do players such as Sven Botman, Jonathan Bamba, and Renato Sanches. Lille’s lineup is still fairly strong, of course – but their ability to stay in the top 3 is already questioned, let alone the possibility of a repeat of 2020/21. Follow our Rennais Predictions

Ligue 1 Relegation Favourites

Now we’ll take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum – which teams are considered the most likely to be relegated to Ligue 2 and why? Ligue 1 relegation betting markets are rare, but the few you can find offer odds of 4-6 to no less than 10 clubs. The competition near the bottom is stiff, as it seems.

ESTAC Troyes

One of Ligue 1’s resident “yo-yo clubs”, this is Troyes’ fourth stint in the top-flight in the past decade. None of these runs lasted more than a single season, though. If there’s any pattern to be seen in all of this, is that this team will tumble right back down to Ligue 2. They may have won Ligue 2 for their qualification last season which puts their form a notch above Clermont, but being freshly promoted puts them in the position of natural underdogs.

Clermont

Troyes have a pattern of being relegated from Ligue 1 as soon as they enter, but Clement have no observable pattern at all. The 2021/22 season is this club’s first-ever appearance in a top-tier league, which makes them a complete wild-card. It also makes them hard underdogs, and reasonably so. Whether they’ll manage to beat the odds and stick around is yet to be seen, though it’s definitely unlikely. Especially if you consider the massive lack of resources they have compared to any other club.

Ligue 1 Top Players

Picking out just a few players as the best in this league is becoming increasingly difficult. Still, here are some examples so you’re clear on the kind of star power we’re dealing with here.

Lionel Messi

Barca fans never thought they’d see the day but Messi finally left the Blaugrana after 16 years on the main roster and a record 35 titles. Listing Messi’s many titles and figures would take up a lot of time, but needless to say, he’s widely considered one of the greatest players of all time. His transfer to PSG, however, remains marred with controversy. This is not the first time the Parisians are accused of flaunting Financial Fair Play rules, either. However, thanks to La Liga salary caps and loosened rules surrounding financial regulations thanks to the Covid-19 crisis, Leo will now be donning the blue-and-red kit.

Despite his youth, the list of Mbappé’s achievments seems too long to count, and his presence on the pitch is unmistakable.

Kylian Mbappé

However, Messi won’t be the only living legend around – and this one has the added benefit of youth. Kylian Mbappé hardly needs an introduction despite being only 22 years of age. His form has not slipped at the slightest in the past year, and his 27 goals over 31 appearances in 2020/21 make him Ligue 1’s best scorer for the third time. The young Frenchman has been turning plenty of heads lately with Real Madrid and Liverpool snooping around but the arrival of Messi is sure to have swayed him into staying at Parc des Princes for at least one more season.

Gianluigi Donnarumma

We’ll round this list out with another fresh PSG arrival and one of the most admired goalkeepers in the world. He became Milan’s first-choice goalkeeper at just 17. Since then, he kept 88 clean sheets for the team and was named Serie A best goalkeeper. He especially came into the spotlight in 2020 by winning UEFA Euro 2020 with the Italian national team and being named the Player of the Tournament.

Ligue 1 Rising Stars

Moving away from already established football stars, let’s take a look at some young players whose peak is yet to come.

Eduardo Camavinga

After stubbornly remaining with Stade Rennais for longer than anyone expected him to, this Angolan-born midfielder will probably be leaving after 2021/22. So far, he’s declined offers from Manchester United, PSG, and Arsenal, so it seems he’ll have his pick of Europe’s best. Aged 18, Camavinga is a teenage sensation and one of the world’s most promising midfielders.

Benoît Badiashile

Another teenage player in Man United crosshairs is Monaco’s centre-back Benoît Badiashile. Badiashile is an extremely skilled passer who is already experienced in Monaco’s high-pressing system. Because of his particular skill set, there are already plenty of rumours about him possibly moving to Chelsea or Liverpool. Either way, he’s a highly bankable young player with limitless potential.

Ligue 1 Derby Matches

Often the best way to understand the dynamics of a certain league is to look at the most highly anticipated showodowns. So, which classic derbies make up the cannon of Ligue 1?

Le Classique

As the name might imply, the matchup between Marseille and Paris St. Germain is widely considered to be France’s answer to Ei Classico. As is often the case in such matters, the derby predates football and goes back to a traditional city rivalry between Paris and Marseille. Beyond that, these two clubs remain the most well-funded and arguably strongest clubs in France.

Choc des Olympiques

Dubbed the Clash of the Olympics because of the teams’ names, this is the highly anticipated showdown between Marseille and Lyon. Before the rise of PSG to their current heights, these two teams were the dominant clubs in France for years. The derby itself is noted for being based on mutual respect of two representatives of the highest echelons of French football, with very little bad blood between the teams and their supporters.

Ligue 1 Best Stadiums

Stade Vélodrome

Marseille’s home turf is a landmark in the history of sports in France. Built in 1935, the Vélodrome was expanded several times and can currently accept a total of 67,394 spectators. It is the biggest sports stadium in the country and regularly hosts UEFA international competitions, as well as various Rugby events.

Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Scheduled to hold the football events of the 2024 Paris Olympics, the Grand Stade de Lyon is the second largest stadium in France with 59,186 seats. It was built relatively recently in 2012 and has served as grounds for various Ice Hockey and Rugby competitions in addition to being Lyon’s home turf.

Parc des Princes

Situated in the 16th arrondissement of Paris within walking distance of the Stade Roland Garros, the Princes’ Park has been PSG’s home turf since 1974. It used to be part of a forested parkland owned by the Royal Family in the far past, though the 47,000+ seats are a relatively recent addition.