Lille - Montpellier predictions

With the odds set at 1.40 for a home win, Lille winning is clearly the most likely outcome in this matchup. Bigger upsets have happened, of course, but we wouldn’t expect anything but a decisive home win.

Considering what they’re up against, Montpellier can’t set their ambitions too high in this match. Playing as visitors at odds of 7.54 for an away win, calling them underdogs seems like an understatement.

Lille’s previous Ligue 1 match did not go their way, but not even the most stubborn fans would have predicted a different result against a team as strong as Paris Saint Germain . They played as visitors, and the top online bookmakers priced an away win at 8.45. They never recovered from some early concessions, and the score was brought to a conclusive 4:1 result before the end.

Montpellier are coming off from a crushing 0:4 defeat at their previous away game. The match was a largely one-sided affair. Top online bookmakers heavily favoured Rennes, who took the lead in the first half and went on to take home 3 points towards the Ligue 1 title.

Lille have been having issues defending lately, though it’s mostly affected their away games for now. They’ve recorded 5 concessions in the past 3 games as visitors.

The visitors’ main concern will be cutting down the concession rate. They conceded more than 5 times in their latest 3 matches, and bucking the trend will be a great step in the right direction.

If there’s one thing to note about the history of this matchup, it’s a fact their matches tend to end in a draw. Several matches this season ended inconclusively, so it neems neither team is able to reliably tip the scales one way or another.

The visitors have to contend with several injuries. Boubakar Kouyate, Issiaga Sylla, Christopher Jullien are the players that will be missing, which makes the Montpellier lineup somewhat weaker than usual. This is made far worse because they were considered undergods going in either way.

Despite the risks involved, the strongest prediction in terms of value is an HT/FT bet that the hosts will take lead in the second half. It’s as risky as you might expect, though the 1.41 odds offer a decent return.