Germany Bundesliga predictions and odds

After a brief delay, the top flight of German football is back for the 2020/21 season. As such, Bundesliga betting will be taking over the sportsbooks soon enough, and Betting Fellow is here to deliver the latest stats and predictions.

However, if you need more information on the upcoming season, such as the favourites, top players, and best Bundesliga betting odds – look no further. This page is intended to serve as a comprehensive Bundesliga betting guide, covering everything from the competition’s history to a general overview of the current balance of power between Germany’s best football teams.

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History and General Info

Germany is quite a force on the world football scene and has been so for quite a while. Their national team is one of the most decorated in the past few decades, and we have to remember that that steamroller is powered by players who star in the Bundesliga.

Currently, it is the third-best ranked national league in Europe according to the UEFA coefficient system. Interestingly, it might lose its position to Italy’s Serie A before the end of 2020. The 3rd and 4th-placed leagues get the same qualification rights, though, so this is largely irrelevant. What is important, though, is that Bundesliga is counted among the “Big 5” – the 5 best national leagues on the continent. This further marks Bundesliga teams as the very peak of the sport.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, though, let’s look at the origins of the league. The road professional football took in Germany is somewhat different from what other countries did. For instance, the competitions were almost exclusively for amateur teams before 1949.

Essentially, the country was partitioned into a large number of regional and sub-regional competitions for decades. As the first centralized national leagues were being implemented in the early 20th century across Europe, Germany stuck to such a system. A national football association, DFB, existed since 1903 – which at least meant that the game was brought to a semi-professional level. Professionalism was introduced in 1949 though, which brought the number of regional competitions down to 5.

By this time, though, World War 2 was over and German teams were expected to compete on an international level. These small regional clubs and champions did not fare well whenever they met other countries’ teams, who were parts of professional association leagues for more than half a century at this point. As time went on, German players kept leaving the country to play at richer, better-organized clubs and leagues. Finally, the Bundesliga was founded in 1962, with the first season held in 1963 in Dortmund.

Of course, at the time, the leagues were separated along the lines of the Iron Curtain. The East- and West German leagues were reunited after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1990. There are some interesting benefits to the Bundesliga’s late blooming. For example, the benefits of playing for the top flight are significant, just like in most national leagues. However, this was the case since its inception – it was created to accommodate TV broadcasts and sponsorship details that were already present at the time. In the long run, this avoided the scenario of England’s Premier League split. who were unprepared for how the world and the sport will change.

As any football lover will know, Bayern Munich is the most dominant club in the Bundesliga. They hold the records for most consecutive seasons and most titles by a considerable margin with 30 national championships. The second most decorated team is Borussia Dortmund with 8. The record for most appearances, on the other hand, is held by Hamburger SV who were relegated for the first time in history in 2018.

Format

Technically speaking, Bundesliga refers to the two top divisions of German football – though usually, the first division is what’s being referred to. As you might imagine, the 2nd Bundesliga is the second-tier league and is connected to the 1st division via a system of promotion and relegations.

Which brings us to the competition's format. The Bundesliga consists of 18 of Germany’s best football teams. A typical season is played between August and May of the following year. Most of the specifics are standard for a European national league – each team plays every other team twice in a round-robin. A victory earns a team 3 points, a draw wins 1, and a loss counts as 0 points. The teams are ranked based on their respective point totals followed by goal difference, goal total, and head-to-head results.

The title of German champions is decided purely through league play. The two bottom-ranked teams are relegated to the 2nd division, while the two best-ranked teams from the second tier league are promoted. Additionally, the 16th placed team plays against the 3rd-placed team from the second division for a chance at an additional promotion.

Due to the league’s high UEFA coefficient ranking, no less than 4 German teams go to the Champions League. Specifically, the 4 best-placed teams go straight to the group stage. The team that’s 5th on the table at the season’s end goes to the Europa League group stage, while the 6th-placed team go to the third qualifying round.

Bundesliga Title Challengers (updated 2021)

As you’re probably aware, the German football league is probably one of the most one-sided in Europe. While teams like Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and even Leverkusen may be quite notable on the international level, only one squad is realistically predicted to win the Bundesliga – Bayern Munich. After all, they’ve won 9 consecutive titles at this point.

As such, looking at Bundesliga outright betting odds may not be as informative as it seems. Bayern’s victory is priced at 1.16 at the most, and even that’s fairly generous. As such, we suggest looking at some alternative Bundesliga outright betting markets. A Top 4 Finish might be interesting, but even the first 3 spots are pretty much guaranteed to go to Leipzig, Dortmund, and Bayern.

Ideally, you’ll want an Outright Winner W/O Bayern as a more consistent indication of the probabilities. Borussia Dortmund is priced at around 1.7, making them favourites for the runners-up position. Leipzig is behind them at 3.5, while Bayer Leverkusen comes in at 9.00 at the lowest.

Bayern Munich

The past decade makes it hard to doubt that the Bavarians will take first place. Especially considering the fact that they secured a 12-point lead last season and that they’re over €40 million in the red after the summer’s transfer period. Besides, 10 consecutive triumphs are a nice, round number.

There are a few asterisks we’d like to point out, though. First of all, they failed to defend their Champions League title, though reaching the quarter-finals is hardly a failure. More importantly, Hansi Flick’s run as head coach is coming to an end. Many supporters will be sad to see him go, especially after he pulled the team out of a 7th place slump in 2019/20 and won the afore-mentioned Champions League trophy. Julian Nagelsmann was brought in from Leipzig, and he’s already displayed a deep understanding of German football in his previous stint. As one of the most sought-after tacticians of modern football, he is expected to be a long-term solution for Bayern Munich’s hot seat.

As one of the world’s strongest professional football teams, it’s difficult to point out a single trait as Bayern’s biggest advantage. Their iron defence is often hailed as a traditional asset, spearheaded by Joshua Kimmich and rising star Alphonso Davies. However, the club has shown increasing interest in focusing on the midfield, as is the current global trend. Leon Goretzka is a great example. And who could forget the goal-getting mastery of Robert Lewandowski, who was Bundesliga’s top goalscorer 6 years in a row?

When it comes to Bayern’s transfer activities, the most notable one was centre-back David Alaba’s departure. The highly-rated defender left for Real Madrid this summer. Dayot Upamecano was brought in from Leipzig to replace him, however, in one of the biggest transfers of the 2021/22 Bundesliga.

 Follow our Bayern Munich Predictions

Borussia Dortmund

The BVB failed to earn 2nd place last season – a position they’ve managed to hold on to for 2 years in a row. However, they only lost to by a single point while also managing to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League. Great things are expected of Dortmund this year, especially as their young and energetic lineup becomes stronger with each passing month. Additionally, Marco Rose was hired as the new head coach.

The current lineup may be relatively inexperienced, by it contains some of the most promising young talents in Europe. Erling Haaland is the most obvious example – an absolute prodigy who scored 27 goals last season, becoming the league’s third-best shooter the first time he appeared in it. Other examples include Jude Bellingham and Giovanni Reyna in the midfield. Such a roster offers plenty of versatility, but they’ll need strong leadership to reach their true potential.

The most prominent departure of the transfer period is Jadon Sancho leaving for Man United – incidentally, another example of a global rising star. Dortmund collected a tidy €85 million but may have trouble finding wingers of that calibre. Conversely, striker Donyell Malen was brought in from Eindhoven, giving the team incredible depth in the offence.

 Follow our Borussia Dortmund Predictions

RB Leipzig

Leipzig winning second place in 2020/21 was a bit of an upset, relatively speaking. Still, under Red Bull’s wings, their rise through the ranks of German football in the past decade has been meteoric. This leaves them as a bit of a wild card when it comes to the Bundesliga’s Top 3, as well as on the international scale.

The first thing that comes to mind when talking about this team is peerless defence. They recorded the lowest number of conceded goals in the previous season with just 32 concessions and 7 lost games. However, we may see a different approach under newly-appointed manager Jesse Marsch. The departure of Leipzig’s star centre-backs Dayot Upamecano and Ibrahima Konaté is sure to be noticed, though it did bring in over €40 million. Instead of opting to straight-up replace them, however, Marsch acquired several promising players in various positions. The most notable is Frankfurt’s centre-forward André Silva, but backs Josko Gvardiol and Angeliño might also imply a wider formation and deeper backline.

 Follow our RB Leipzig Predictions

Bundesliga Relegation Favourites

Now that we’ve covered the favourites, let’s look at the teams top sportsbooks describe as most likely to be relegated this season.

VFL Bochum

This club won the second flight last season, which makes them one of the Bundesliga teams most likely to be relegated. While the league as a whole does not traditionally feature so-called “yo-yo” teams, the bookies don’t feel that they’re likely to match up well to any other squad currently on the table. They’ve managed to secure a few free transfers and loans, but an overall quiet transfer period rarely bodes well for a freshly promoted team.

Greuther Fürth

Greuther Fürth displays a bit more consistency than the other clubs projected to end up on the bottom of the table. However, this consistency is largely as a mid-table 2. Bundesliga team. They had only one previous appearance in the top-flight throughout their history, and that was a single bottom-placing season in 2012/13. All of this points to a very short stint in the first-tier, and the betting odds agree.

Bundesliga Top Players

Here are the key players that are generally seen as the Bundesliga’s most notable or valuable.

Robert Lewandowski

Just when some believe the Polish striker’s career is finally winding down, he once again manages to wow the world. Named the player of the year by both UEFA and FIFA in 2020, Lewandowski clearly has plenty he still wants to prove. We’ll just let some of the awards and numbers speak. He is only one of two players ever to win a European treble while being the top goalscorer in all three competitions. With over 270 goals scored so far, he is the second-highest goalscorer in Bundesliga’s history. As icing on that cake, he also broke the record for most goals in a single campaign by scoring a whopping 41 goals in 2020/21.

Erling Haaland

We wondered whether to put Haaland in the Rising Stars category, but it’s quite clear that this Norwegian forward’s star has already risen. Haaland won the previous season’s Bundesliga Player of the Season award after being named the Champions League’s top goalscorer. This is a feat he managed to win with 2 goals over Mbappe who spent almost 20% more time on the pitch. Considering he is just 21, the so-called Terminator is the most highly-valued player in German football. By a considerable margin, at that.

Joshua Kimmich

Widely considered the successor to the legendary Phillip Lahm, Kimmich was named the UEFA Defender of the Year after Bayern’s treble in 2019/20. The previous season has clearly not dulled his impeccable sense for passing. German football media described him as a "veritable Swiss Army knife of a player" – he is both the centrepiece of the team’s defence and an aggressive deep-lying midfielder.

Bundesliga Rising Stars

Let’s also take a look at some of the best players in the Bundesliga who have not yet had a chance to prove themselves.

Alphonso Davies

Being named one of the world’s best left-backs at the age of 18 is no small matter, yet this Canadian wunderkind managed to do so. His incredible speed and dribbling are responsible for backs slowly being turned into a more and more offensive role. For instance, he holds the record for the fastest running speed clocked in the Bundesliga at 36.51 km/h. Last season, he also went into history by running down Haaland at a speed of 35.3 hm/h.

Jude Bellingham

Bellingham became Borussia Dortmund’s youngest ever goalscorer in his first match for the team in 2020. Even more interestingly, he achieved this while playing as a midfielder. At just 16 years of age, he became an absolute sensation while playing for Birmingham is his home country of England. Bellingham is an extremely athletic box-to-box midfielder, currently aged 18.

Bundesliga Derby Matches

You may have already figured out what are the best football derbies in the Bundesliga. Still, let’s go over them for deeper insight into the dynamics of top German football.

Der Klassiker

Every national league worth its salt has a showdown such as this – the clash of titans that represents the very peak of that nation’s football. In the case of Germany, it’s the derby between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. These two teams are the only ones with Bundesliga titles in the last decade, and the results of Der Klassiker usually signal which one is going to come out on top in the standings.

Nordderby

A match between Hamburg and Werder Bremen is not the cause for excitement it used to be – especially not in the wake of Hamburg’s relegation in 2018. Still, this is historically one of the fiercest rivalries in the country. Although neither of them have been named champions for decades now, both enjoy tremendous support worldwide.

Bundesliga Best Stadiums

The Bundesliga’s rich clubs can boast quite a few enormous football stadiums. We’ve tried to single out a few of them to give you an idea of where Bundesliga matches are played.

Westfalenstadion

One of the most acclaimed stadiums in Europe and beyond, Dortmund’s home turf is famous for the passionate atmosphere that it hosts. With a capacity of over 80,000, this stadium is the seventh-biggest in Europe and the largest among all German teams’ home fields. It’s also noted for its incredible attendance rates – above 80,000 is the average number of spectators per game.

Allianz Arena

Besides being a huge stadium and the home of Bayern Munich, the Allianz Arena is a true architectural marvel. Its exterior is made up of colour-changing plastic panels, the results of which can be truly breath-taking. As one of the more interesting designs as far as stadiums go, you can expect to see it quite often in international competitions in the future.